The Demographic Change In Germany

Short statement about the birth data from 1970 - 1990: The German population is aging and shrinking. Only slowly creeping this process in the public consciousness has moved. High international migration gains and the number of births boomers have moved in the 1980s and 1990s to look for the scale downsizing process for decades. Because since 1970 the number of children per woman is one third below the 1.4 value of 2.1 that would be required for conservation. With each new generation that lacks a third more potential mothers. Introduced only as a drastically declining birth rate in the new countries to the closure of kindergartens and schools, the impact of population growth was a major political and technical attention. The demographic change in general: Demographic change is one of the biggest challenges for the future of our country. As the challenge proves to be less long-term population decline in Germany - according to the latest population projections from the current 82 million to 75 million people in 2050 - but rather the aging of the population, which brings our social security systems in difficulty and after long-term adaptation strategies demands. aging population means that the composition of the population moves more and more towards older people. Decisive here is not a growing number of older people, but a growing proportion of older people in the population. As the latest model calculations show the population, the proportion of people aged 65 and older increased from 17.1% today to 29.6% in 2050, at the same time, the proportion of very elderly (aged 80 and older) increased to about 12% and thus more than tripled. The demographic aging in Germany is not new, but a development that has been around for over 100 years in progress. The causes are the long-term changes in fertility - particularly the decline in births in 1900 and around 1970 - and the continuous increase in life expectancy. The increased life expectancy was initially the result of the decline in infant and child mortality. Today, the increasing life expectancy of the elderly for this general increase in life expectancy is responsible. terms of life horizon of individual generations of population aging is an irreversible process, because it is created in the current age structure of the population already. Thus, the pensioners of 2050 are already born, their number is certain more or less. Rising birth rates and immigration in the current magnitude can mitigate the process of demographic aging only, but not reverse. The impact of demographic aging are most evident in the pension systems, which are based in Germany on a so-called "generational contract". For her performance, it is crucial to the so-called "EDRs", which means the numerical ratio of people of retirement age as a potential recipient to people of working age. Assuming the retirement age from the current average age at retirement from 60 years and places than people of working age, the 20 - and based on 60-year-olds, then there is currently a dependency ratio of 44, which means for every 100 people of working age are currently 44 people of retirement age. The elderly dependency ratio will rise to the model calculations of the Federal Statistical Office, 2030 up to 71 fast and by 2050, further to 78. Since pension benefits are ultimately generated and financed by the workers have a long-term adaptation of pension systems will be essential. A favorable development of the old age dependency ratio would be expected if you have a retirement age of 65 or 67 years ago laid the basis (see 10 Coordinated Population Forecast). Then the dependency ratio would rise to 2050 to only 55 (retirement age at 65) or 47 (retirement age at 67). Demographic change means not only the aging of the population, it also change the forms of cooperative coexistence. The "social institution" of the marriage and the family disappears but not marry and have children but is no longer elected by nearly the entire population as a life model. Even today, remains a third of all unmarried women and men. The proportion of singles, single parents and unmarried couples has increased in the age group of 35 to 39 years in which they lived through a part of the family phase, to 30% (women). The consideration of this age group is chosen, for example to younger people living alone, who have no children or partners, or older single people or couples whose children have already left the household, ruled out. More than 30% of all marriages end in divorce and the close link between marriage and cohabitation with children begins to dissolve. Sun 27% of all children born to unmarried women are housed.